The Beginning of a Long Fall for Ukraine
The Beginning of a Long Fall for Ukraine
As we head into fall and winter, the situation continues to worsen for Ukraine.
SIMPLICIUS THE THINKER - OCTOBER 5, 2023
As we head into fall and winter, the situation continues to worsen for Ukraine. The biggest developments have happened outside the locus of the conflict itself, but rather in the geopolitical scene where Ukraine is faced with a disastrous loss of financial support.
The U.S. House of Representatives has just removed its Speaker for the first time in history, primarily over his secret side deal with Biden to get funding to Ukraine. Some of the current options on the table for his replacement would spell disaster for Ukraine as they are all staunchly anti-funding Republicans.
On top of that, there’s been a concerted media campaign to really push the narrative that European weapons are completely running out:
The narrative is now coming fairly out into the open on both sides. In the West, top officials are actively speaking on how Putin plans to “fatigue” the West into giving up on Ukraine, while Russian officials like Medvedev are openly admitting to this fact, and stating that the West will give up on Ukraine soon.
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The West has never looked weaker, not only in general, but specifically vis a vis their support for Ukraine. All of their recent attempts at portraying a unified front look increasingly hollow and desperate. The facade is literally falling apart before our very eyes, showcased most poignantly in this Sky News interview with Ukrainian MP Lesia Vasylenko, which was taken down soon after because of how inconvenient her “slip ups” were in admitting that Russia is winning the war:
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But these latest things are just the outward manifestation of something that had privately started long ago. Ukraine’s support had already been slowly coming to a trickle:
And the fact is, this is not something you can turn around even if you wanted to. The way military support works is your logistics chains from many months ago are critical to the efforts of today. What would be essential to a hypothetical Ukrainian spring 2024 offensive would need to be heavy arms shipping now. The fact that there is nothing new of note being shipped means Ukraine’s near and medium term future look stark.
CNN and others had forecast this gloomy change weeks ago:
Now, in a desperate plea to reengage the public on the putative ‘threat’ that Russia poses in defeating Ukraine, the globalist scriptwriters have rolled out a new narrative: saving Ukraine means saving Taiwan from China. You can see this—as usual—in the orchestrated nature of the sudden, totally aligned messaging, which has clearly been sent down as ‘guidance’ from above.
Just in the past few days alone we have:
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Freeland: “Strongest message of deterrence we can send to China is a decisive Ukraine victory.”
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Graham: “To stop funding Ukraine is a death sentence to Taiwan.”
This represents a fairly prosaic and predictable escalation in language. They have no other way to fearmonger the progressively disinterested populace other than bringing up the specter of some other newer, larger looming conflict as consequence of losing this one.
In reality, it’s probably likelier that Russia losing the war, rather than winning, would cause China to invade Taiwan. The reason being that Russia losing the war would greatly destabilize the world by giving a huge new power boost to the West. And given their precedent to always escalate to bring dominion and hegemony to their adversaries, the West will use the momentum of that victory to up the ante on their pressure against China—that perennial pressure to slowly chip away at and balkanize all competitors.
Russia winning on the other hand would give the West a major reality check which would greatly weaken them and could lead to their backing off on the Taiwan issue, particularly due to the fact that many “heads will roll” in Western leadership, most of whom will be the top ‘swamp’ creatures of the deepstate.
This will lower tensions and lead to China banking on the eventual mutual-political reunion with Taiwan, rather than a forced military take over. You see, China doesn’t want to invade Taiwan—just like Russia didn’t want to invade Ukraine. China made that clear many times that they are completely against it, and are seeking a natural reunification driven by consensus from both sides. However, if the West corners China by continuing to arm Taiwan (as they’ve begun doing now) and turning Taiwan into a similar dangerous thorn in China’s side, then China will have no choice but to “pull the bandaid off” and effect a sharp military take over.
Thus, I believe the calculus is as follows: Russia wins in Ukraine = the West is weakened and pressure on Taiwan defuses, lessening the chances of war and strengthening the chances of China pursuing peaceful reunification.
Russia loses in Ukraine = the West gets arrogant and uses their victory as proof they can weaken China the same way they did to Russia. This will lead China to feel they have no alternative than to act decisively.
So, what’s next?
There is a core group of the most hardened deepstate related European technocrats who are convening emergency meetings in an attempt to bridge some consensus towards military-industrial support. Joseph Borrell held what he called an “historic” meeting in Kiev with EU’s foreign ministers:
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