The Russia-Ukraine War Is Just About Over
The handwriting was on the wall. An Op-Ed in the New York Times entitled “I’m a Ukrainian, and I Refuse to Compete for Your Attention” summed things up nicely
BY TYLER DURDEN - SUNDAY, NOV 26, 2023
Authored by Peter van Buren via The Ron Paul Institute,
The handwriting was on the wall. An Op-Ed in the New York Times entitled “I’m a Ukrainian, and I Refuse to Compete for Your Attention” summed things up nicely: a media junket the author’s friend had been organizing to Ukraine was canceled. The TV crew instead left for the Middle East.
The United States controls how the war in the Ukraine proceeds and always has. Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said it was the American side which scuttled any chance of peace in Ukraine as early as March 2022, soon after the war began. “The only people who could resolve the war over Ukraine are the Americans. During the peace talks in March 2022 in Istanbul, Ukrainians did not agree to peace because they were not allowed to. They had to coordinate everything they talked about with the Americans first. However, nothing eventually happened. My impression is that nothing could happen because everything was decided in Washington.”
Fast-forward to 2023 and the story is different. Earlier this month NBC News quietly released a report which said U.S. and European officials broached the topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine, including “very broad outlines of what Ukraine might need to give up to reach a deal with Russia.” NBC said “the discussions are an acknowledgment of the dynamics militarily on the ground in Ukraine and politically in the U.S. and Europe.” They began amid concerns the war has reached a stalemate and about the ability to continue providing open-ended aid to Ukraine.
Biden administration officials are also worried Ukraine is running out of men in this war of attrition, while Russia has a seemingly endless supply. Ukraine is also struggling with recruiting and recently saw public protests (not shown on American TV) about President Volodymyr Zelensky’s open-ended conscription requirements. Kivy is today sending 40 and 50-year-olds to the front.
This comes as Time reported Zelensky’s top advisers admitted the war is currently unwinnable for Ukraine. Things look a bit better from the point of view of Ukraine commander-in-chief General Valery Zaluzhny, who believes the war is only at a stalemate. “It’s now a battle of inches,” say American sources quietly.
Americans will be forgiven if they never hear this bad news, never mind be surprised by it if they did. The narrative which drove sports teams to wear blue and yellow patches and E Street Band member Steve Van Zandt to paint his guitar the Ukrainian colors was simple. Amid a flood of propaganda, the story was always the same: Ukraine was pushing back the Russians with weapons provided by a broad range of agreeable NATO benefactors. Between Ukrainian jet fighter aces with improbable kill ratios to patriotic female sniper teams with improbable hair and makeup, Russia was losing. It would be a difficult but noble slog for “as long as it takes” to drive the Russians out. Any talk about peace was insulting to Kyiv, fighting for its survival and all.
Meanwhile mediagenic President Zelensky at first flew around the world like Bono, procuring weapons while showing off his man-to-man relationships with celebrities. Now desperate, Zelensky is inflight claiming Russia, Iran, and North Korea sponsored Hamas’ attack on Israel, trying to rattle up some support.
It was as compelling as it was untrue. Any thoughtful analysis of the war showed it to be, from early days, a war of attrition at best for the Ukrainian side and while the U.S. could supply nearly bottomless cargo planes full of weapons and munitions, right up to the promised F-16 fighter-bombers and M1A tanks due on line soon, it could not fill the manpower gap. Any appetite for American troop involvement was hushed up early in the fight. Russia could do what she had always done at war, hunker down in the field and reach deep into its vast territory to find ever more conscripts to wait out the enemy. It didn’t hurt that Russia’s capability versus NATO equipment was surprisingly good, or perhaps the Ukrainians’ handling of sophisticated Western arms was surprisingly bad.
But the most predictable factor leading to quiet U.S. moves toward some sort of “solution” in Ukraine is as predictable as the battlefield results. There is unease in the U.S. government over how much less public attention (despite the propaganda) the war in Ukraine has garnered since the Israeli-Hamas conflict began more than a month ago. Combined with what looks like a feisty new Speaker of the House seeking to decouple aid to Israel from aid to Ukraine, officials fear that shift could make securing additional funds for Kyiv difficult.
STEVE CLARK on X: Confirmation of two previous "Kremlin Talking Points"; that NATO expansion into Ukraine was a main reason for the Russian invasion, and that the West scuppered the spring 2022 peace talks. Also confirmation that Russia had no intention of invading the whole of Ukraine.
ARNAUD BERTRAN on X: This is an incredibly damning piece of historical evidence: This is Davyd Arakhamia, parliamentary leader of Zelensky's ''Servant of the People'' party. He led the Ukrainian delegation at peace talks with the Russians in Belarus and Türkiye in 2022.
[To X/Twitter posts please go the original link below]
Americans, the people and their government, assisted by their media wielding the greatest propaganda tools ever imagined, seem capable of focusing on only one bright shiny object at a time. Over 41 percent of Americans now say the U.S. is doing too much to help Kyiv. That’s a significant change from just three months ago when only 24 percent of Americans said they felt that way. In the case of wars, a new bright shiny object must include two clear sides, one good and one pure evil, with one preferably an underdog, daily combat footage which can be obtained without too much danger, and a football game-like progression across a map that is easy to follow. It should not be boring. Ukraine was such a conflict and enjoyed almost a full two-year run. But the fickle attention of America shifted to the Middle East just as things started to look more and more like static WWI trench warfare in Ukraine. It was a hard act to follow but something always follows nonetheless (the same calculus works for natural disasters and mass shootings, which are only as mediagenic-good as the next one coming.)
Ukraine, like Israel, owes most of its continued existence to American weaponry. However, despite the blue and yellow splattered on social media at present, Ukraine does not have anywhere near the base of support Israel does among the American public and especially within the American Congress. The terms for resolving the war will be dictated to Kyiv as much by Washington as they will be by Moscow, as with Crimea a few years ago. The end will be quite sad; Russia will very likely solidify its hold on Donbas and the Crimea, and achieve new territory to the west approaching Kyiv, roughly 20 percent of Ukraine. Ukraine will be forced to set aside its goal of joining NATO even as the U.S. takes a new stand on its western border with Poland.
It is all something of a set piece. America’s habit of wandering into a conflict and then losing interest is long (Iraq) enough to count as an addition to history (Afghanistan.) “We have your back” and “we will not abandon you” join “the check’s in the mail” and “I’m from the government and I’m here to help” among joking faux reassurances. Our proxies seem to end up abandoned and hung out to die. As in Iraq and Afghanistan, never mind Vietnam before that, what was realized at the end could have most likely been achievable at pretty much anytime after the initial hurrahs passed away. It is sad that so many had to die to likely see it happen in 2023.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/peter-van-buren-ukraine-war-just-about-over?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2035
MY COMMENT:
This new post confirms my commentary in another post Russia talks confirms that peace deal could have been reached in spring 2022 if Ukraine agreed to neutrality (https://hdepaola.substack.com/publish/post/139207388). The West forced Ukraine not to sign the 2022 agreement, accepting neutrality status and committed itself to supporting it until the end. But this was nothing more than propaganda for the internal public. The real compromise was in case Ukraine won the war and nothing else. With the current impasse in the form of World War I and the beginning of the war in the Middle East, the people lost interest and, as it was mere propaganda, Biden and NATO had to retreat and leave the Ukrainian people in the worst of all worlds: alone without real allies and serving as cannon fodder to Russian military.
In my opinion, unlike the First World War, where the impasse occurred due to the equivalence of forces in combat, in the current case it is, and should always have been seen as a madness to deny Russia's forces preponderance without USA or NATO countries send their troops, which was never considered for the risk of a war with Russia.
This is a situation in which Russia even before communism has always felt comfortable, and Putin as a member of the KGB now disguised as FSB has always demanded coolness in fighting in the shadows and knowing how to wait as long as necessary to receive what he always wanted: Crimea and Dombass, for Russia had no intention nor military capability of invading the whole of Ukraine. Russia’s goal was ever to reach hot seas ports for seafare and warfare. Thar’s why Grigory Potemkin, General of the Russian Army and “favourite of Catharine II (for two years) peacefuly annexed Crimea in 1783 under her command. After many wars between Russia and Turkish Empires the peninsula remained an autonomous province of Russia until 1954 when Khrushchëv gave it to Ukraine at the time one of the Soviet Socialist Republics within USSR.
Now, as I always said, Ukraine is abandoned by its false allies. I don’t trust Zelenskyi but he was eihter fooled by these “allies” or had some compensation to remain submissive to them until the unhappy end.